Rystad：全球化石燃料碳排放量将在2025年前达到峰值

据美国钻井网站2023年2月10日报道，根据挪威著名能源研究和商业情报公司雷斯塔能源公司（Rystad）的研究和分析，全球化石燃料二氧化碳排放量的拐点即将到来，化石燃料二氧化碳排放量将在2025年前达到峰值。

根据目前全球已宣布的政策、项目、行业趋势和预期的技术进步，到2025年前，全球化石燃料的二氧化碳年排放总量将达到大约390亿吨，然后由于各行业清理碳足迹，全球化石燃料的二氧化碳排放总量将稳步下降。

在地缘政治紧张局势背景下，各国争相获得可靠、负担得起的发电燃料，导致化石燃料的二氧化碳排放总量在2022年创下历史新高。因此，许多国家转而使用碳密集型燃料作为能源安全危机的短期解决方案，重新启用被封存的燃煤发电厂，并优先考虑天然气而不是更清洁的替代能源。尽管这些燃料在未来几十年里仍将在全球经济中发挥作用，但更广泛的推动更清洁未来的努力并没有放缓的迹象。

作为未来的一个迹象，来自电力和热力产生的直接二氧化碳排放——全球发电厂化石燃料燃烧产生的二氧化碳——将在今年达到峰值。在未来几年走向高潮之前，最初的下降将是最小的，这将成为到2025年前所有部门二氧化碳排放总量下降的重要因素。

Rystad清洁技术研究负责人阿特姆·阿布拉莫夫说：“在未来两年内达到化石燃料二氧化碳排放峰值是一项杰出的全球成就，考虑到当前供应链的障碍和对能源安全的高度关注，这一成就尤为突出。如果该行业能够保持这一势头，全球气候变暖低于2摄氏度的目标是可以实现的。”

去年，全球化石燃料二氧化碳年排放总量达到了历史最高水平，约为383亿吨，这让人惊讶，并质疑世界是否有能力实现将气候变暖限制在1.5至2摄氏度之间的雄心勃勃的气候目标。然而，Rystad的综合排放模型指出了一个迫在眉睫的年度排放拐点。数据显示，2025年将达到390亿吨的峰值，但如果短期宏观经济前景加速能源转型，这一时间线最早可能提前到2024年。
 

去年是实现全球气候目标具有挑战性的一年。一方面，新增的公用事业规模的太阳能和风能发电能力达到了创纪录的水平——全球大约300吉瓦——从而引发了可再生发电的大幅增长，这一趋势今年可能会再次增加。

然而，由于低碳供应链的中断和通胀压力，这些新增装机容量低于预期。此外，地缘政治冲突从根本上扰乱了能源流动，导致天然气普遍短缺，特别是在欧洲，促进了煤炭发电使用量的增加。因此，电力和热力部门的直接化石燃料二氧化碳年排放总量达到了大约144亿吨的历史新高。

去年，全球工业化石燃料二氧化碳年排放总量持平于99.5亿吨左右。

全球交通运输部门的化石燃料二氧化碳年排放总量增加了2亿吨，在2022年达到78亿吨，低于疫情前82亿吨的峰值，原因是疫情影响和电动汽车加速普导致航空业持续疲软。电动汽车的普及程度正接近抵消全球现役汽车数量年度增长所需的水平。

尽管有这些挫折，电力和热力部门预计将从本十年中期开始推动即将到来的化石燃料二氧化碳排放量下降。到2023年，可再生能源发电能力的增加预计将超过电力需求的增长。从2025年起，每年新增的可再生能源发电量将开始对化石燃料总产量产生重大影响。

这一趋势还将伴随着煤制气的连续不断转换。交通运输和工业部门化石燃料二氧化碳排放量将在本十年晚些时候达到峰值，但预计也将在21世纪20年代下半叶加入脱碳趋势。与此同时，第一代大规模商业碳捕获计划也将开始发挥不可忽视的作用，最初由欧洲和北美的项目推动。
 

不同地区的脱碳情况各不相同，预计未来几年化石燃料二氧化碳排放的主要贡献者将发挥不同的作用。例如，到2030年前，欧洲、美国化石燃料二氧化碳排放量将分别减少24%、18%。欧洲和美国正走在结构性脱碳经济的道路上，从2025年起，它们将倾向于新实施的清洁技术和低碳政策。

另一方面，由于经济增长和人口增长，印度预计将继续扩大化石燃料二氧化碳排放的势头。我们预计印度的化石燃料二氧化碳排放量将在2022年至2030年期间增加36%，在2025年超过欧洲，在21世纪30年代初超过美国。我们预计，由于非煤炭发电加快步伐以满足国内不断增长的电力需求，印度的化石燃料二氧化碳排放量的增长将在本世纪30年代放缓。

在其他地方，到2030年前，工业部门化石燃料二氧化碳排放量预计将增加大约20%。

李峻 编译自 美国钻井网站

原文如下：

Fossil Fuel Emissions To Peak Within Two Years

The inflection point for fossil fuel carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions is nigh, with emissions on track to peak by 2025, according to Rystad Energy research and analysis.

On the current global pathway of announced policies, projects, industry trends and expected technological advancements, global CO2 emissions are poised to hit about 39 gigatonnes per year (Gtpa) in 2025 before settling into a steady annual decline as industries clean up their carbon footprint.

Emissions hit a record high in 2022 as countries scrambled to secure reliable, affordable fuel for power generation on the back of  the war. As a result, many turned to more carbon-intensive fuels as a short-term solution to their energy security crises, reviving mothballed coal plants and prioritizing gas over cleaner alternatives. While these fuels will still have a role to play in the global economy for decades to come, the broader push towards a cleaner future is showing no signs of slowing down.

As a sign of things to come, direct CO2 emissions – carbon dioxide originating from fossil fuel combustion at the plants worldwide – from power and heat generation will peak this year. The decline will be minimal initially before gathering momentum in the coming years, becoming a significant factor behind the decrease in total CO2 emissions from all sectors by 2025.

“Peak fossil fuel CO2 emissions within the next two years is an outstanding global achievement, exceptional when considering the current supply chain roadblocks and the high focus on energy security. If the industry can maintain this momentum, global warming of less than 2.0 degrees Celsius is within reach,” said Artem Abramov, head of clean tech research at Rystad Energy.

Fossil CO2 emissions reached an all-time high of about 38.3 Gtpa last year, raising eyebrows and questions about the world’s ability to deliver on ambitious climate goals to limit warming to between 1.5 and 2.0 degrees Celsius. However, Rystad’s comprehensive emissions modeling points to an imminent emissions inflection point. The data shows a peak of 39 Gtpa in 2025, but that timeline could move up to as early as next year if the short-term macroeconomic outlook accelerates the energy transition.

Power and heating driving emissions reductions globally

Last year proved a challenging one for global climate goals. On the one hand, a record amount of new utility-scale solar and wind capacity was added – about 300 GW globally – triggering a sizeable increase in renewable-generated electricity, a trend that is likely to increase again this year.

However, these new installations were weaker than forecast, thanks to low-carbon supply-chain disruptions and inflationary pressure. Moreover, the war fundamentally disrupted energy flows, resulting in widespread natural gas shortages, particularly in Europe, facilitating the increase in coal use for power generation. As a result, direct fossil CO2 emissions from the power and heat sectors hit record highs of around 14.4 Gtpa.

Global industrial emissions last year stayed flat at around 9.95 Gtpa.

Transport emissions increased by 0.2 Gtpa to reach 7.8 Gtpa in 2022 – falling short of pre-Covid peaks of 8.2 Gtpa due to the continued weakness of the aviation sector, triggered by the pandemic and accelerating penetration of electric vehicles. EV adoption is approaching the levels needed to offset the annual global growth of the size of the active car fleet.

Despite these setbacks, the power and heating sector is expected to drive the upcoming fossil CO2 decline from mid-decade onwards. In 2023, the addition of renewable generation capacity is projected to outstrip the uptick in electricity demand. From 2025, annual renewable generation additions will start materially affecting total fossil fuel output.

This trend will also accompany continuous coal-to-gas switching. Transportation and industrial emissions will peak later this decade but are also expected to join the decarbonization trend in the second half of the 2020s. At the same time, the first generation of large-scale commercial carbon capture initiatives will also start playing non-negligible roles, driven initially by projects in Europe and North America.

Europe, the US, etc. made progress, India’s emissions grow

The decarbonization picture differs across regions, and key contributors of emissions are expected to play perging roles in the coming years. For instance, Europe, the US, are on track to reduce fossil CO2 emissions by 24%, 18%, , respectively, by 2030. Europe and the US are on a path to structurally decarbonize their economies, leaning into newly implemented clean technology and low carbon policies from 2025 onwards.

At the other end of the spectrum, India is expected to continue its momentum of expanding CO2 emissions as its economy expands and the population grows. We expect Indian CO2 emissions to increase by 36% between 2022 and 2030, surpassing Europe in 2025 and the US in the early 2030s. We anticipate growing emissions to slow in the 2030s as non-coal power generation steps up to meet incremental electricity demand growth.

Elsewhere, industrial emissions are expected to increase by about 20% by 2030.